ScienceDuuude
2 min readDec 9, 2020

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Hey Nuno! Great questions!

As you know I'm a huuuge Tesla (and pretty big Musk) fan. Musk has not met a single projection for when full self drive will come out. I've given up believing his specific schedule forecasts, but I do believe his technology forecasts because he has eventually met those. I don't believe FSD will be out on the date he says, but I belive FSD will be released sooner than his critics believe (i.e., I don't agree with either Musk or his critics).

On merging with another auto company... I agree with you that there is nothing a legacy auto company can teach Musk. However, seeing how auto company stocks are getting so beaten down, it is distinctly possible that the value of their assets, factories, robots, stamping presses, paint shops, etc... may be more than the value of the company - so potentially a big bargain.

This is similar to how Tesla bought the Fremont factory for pennies years after GM/Toyota abandoned the plant... But Tesla only bought the buildings and the land and fitted it with all new equipment.

In a merger with an existing auto company, Tesla needs to be careful because existing auto companies come with all kinds of liabilities... they owe pensions to tens of thousands of retired workers, for example... they probably have many lawsuits pending... they have existing labor and union contracts in place that cannot be discarded (Tesla has avoided all unions to date)... I think those could sink Tesla in a merger... Tesla will be valued far higher than the legacy auto company (as it should be), but will be far smaller by most every other metric (number of employees, cars sold, size of auto assembly plants, revenues, etc).

Anyways, those are some of my finger-in-the-wind guesses about your questions.

What do you think?

S.D.

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ScienceDuuude
ScienceDuuude

Written by ScienceDuuude

Husband, dad, scientist, loves to share sciency stuff and goofiness. Please follow me: https://twitter.com/DuuudeScience

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