Hi Solvent,
“…FWIW, the total MAY be higher…”
Sure - but even your higher number is still a tiny fraction of Tesla cars sold that might require recall… compared to the fraction of cars GM had to recall over their ignition switch fiasco which killed hundreds. You do know that tiny startup Tesla has sold over a million cars (they passed that milestone earlier this year). Right? They have had an exponentially accelerating number of cars sold each year for ten years, which is the business excellence based on a phenomenal car design and product quality that people learn about person to person over the past decade. Here’s a graph showing that exponential number of cars sold:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/
That doesn’t happen for ten years with a crappy product.
I think I have almost the oldest Model S in the world, a used 2013 Model S P85. And it is a phenomenal car. Have you test driven one Solvent? Seriously, try one. You will be blown away.
“…It [Tesla] did so reluctantly [recall] in China and is resisting doing so here at home…”
So you believe China over Tesla, an American company, that Chinese drivers are not abusing the car? You’ll believe Chinese government officials that there is a recallable problem, over the US’s NHTSA which said that there had never been a quality problem with the false reports of Tesla suspension problems purportedly reported since 2016? I think we have a more basic difference on what might constitute a reliable source of information - than merely a difference of opinion on the basic viability of Tesla as a company.
There are no statistics anywhere starting from the most important body the NHTSA or the insurance companies on a widespread life-threatening quality problem like breaking suspensions. That is truly a fringe group trying to peddle that rumor, and failing to gain traction with it. Tesla sales continue to skyrocket - even while domestic and international auto company sales are tanking due to the pandemic.
Of course Tesla is reluctant - wouldn’t you be reluctant to recall a good product just because the Chinese government said to do so - and you knew your product wasn’t defective? But Tesla is doing so nonetheless.
Tesla is not GM.
“…But that [NHTSA 5-star rating of Tesla] may change, if the agency feels pressured by the Chinese agency’s action to launch an investigation…”
You forget that the NHTSA had already done an investigation and found no problems. You can go on the Tesla forums and see a similar thing - the vast majority of owners report no problems (and they are NOT a uniformly happy uninformed group - they do report problems and when they are not happy). But the forum picks out the fringe elements and nut jobs pretty quickly because they are pretty well informed on the statistics and what are real problems and what are not.
“…Tesla may have settled complaints privately when customers complained, inducing them not to write to the NHTSA and not to file an insurance claim. This is how GM kept the ignition-switch problem under the rug for many years…”
But notice that doesn’t work for very long - the truth eventually comes out. Tesla knows this. People talk even with an NDA. Neighbors find out. Friends find out. That’s why GM eventually had to recall. So speculating on Tesla nefariously and short-sightedly paying off customers is pretty desperate an explanation. When Tesla has a history of claiming responsibility for faults and fixing them right away.
I have a perfect example. My motor started making noises. Pretty minor stuff. I complained, and Tesla came back to say since I have such an old Tesla, the motor was a 1st generation motor and probably worn out by now. So they told me to drop it off so they could replace the motor. One of the most expensive items in the car to replace, beside the battery. They did it for free, under the warrantee. No car company in the world would do that even with a warrantee. Not for a noisy motor.
I’m not a rare case. That is how Tesla operates.
So that is why your hypothetical of Tesla paying off customers rings hollow and false. There is no data to support your speculation of Tesla’s behavior. There is 10 years of accelerating sales to support Tesla’s good pro-customer behavior.
“…As a result of being proved right, such [fringe] groups have now gained credibility…”
No Solvent, they have not been proved right - you again are putting much credibility on the Chinese government. Is that really where you want to be? And with fringe groups who have for years been proven wrong? I think there are better places to put your credibility than those kinds of sources.
“…It tarnishes the shine on Tesla’s halo and makes it resemble big bad legacy auto, which will turn off some potential buyers…”
People have been trying to tarnish Tesla for a decade. Look at that exponential sales curve again. That acceleration in sales has been going on for a decade despite a constant source of fringe groups fabricating false quality alarms.
“…Only in the context of your article’s title, “Tesla’s Stratospheric Launch Continues,” which suggested continuing stock-price growth and good news…”
Solvent, you misunderstand - that stratospheric refers to units sold and revenues gained. Not to stock price. Check the whole article again - I make no stock price prediction.
Note again that Tesla has a decade of accelerating sales growth. Accelerating units delivered, and corresponding acceleration of revenues earned.
I didn’t predict that continuing - but am happy to do so here. I’m holding my shares and helped my kids buy a couple shares as well.
“… I thought it was ironically amusing that events so soon cast a cloud on such rosiness…”
I’m happy to wait with you to see how this pans out. You predict that this will be the tipping point and Tesla will be revealed as a corporate scoundrel.
I predict that this will blow over as empty complaints as many others have in the past.
“…But Tesla has not been successful in executing Musk’s “2006 “Secret Master Plan” In that it has failed to use profits from each model to fund development of the next. Instead, it has resorted to capital raises…”
Solvent, you might want to re-read that Master Plan. Nowhere does Musk say “only use profits to fund each model”. But he does say that the profits will go towards the next model - and that is exactly why Tesla had no profits for over a decade. All the profits went back into the company.
“…Instead, I think it is a speculative bubble based on mostly on hopes for the future. The market can stay irrationally hopeful for a year or so, perhaps even making a new high if the S&P index committee admits it. But beyond two years I think rationality will have its innings. I’ll check back here a year and two years from now, OK?…”
Not a problem. A year or two is very short term, and I’m happy to agree with you that Tesla may be lower than today. I have no idea or care where Tesla is a year to two. I worry about where Tesla will be decades out - and that is where my investment is aimed - and the probability is high that Tesla the company will be doing quite well then.
More important than the short term stock price, is where Tesla will be as a business. And my belief is that while the US auto industry continues to struggle and lose sales, Tesla will continue their overall trend of accelerating sales growth. Furthermore, we’ll see an even faster acceleration of Tesla’s energy division - solar and battery storage.
So see you in a couple years!
Best,
S. Duuude
