James Rickards is a smart guy, no doubt. He was a principal in the hedge fund LTCM which went bust in 2000 despite being packed with PhDs and the world's smartest financial and computer whizzes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

So there is a bit of a disconnect between being supersmart and being financially successful either individually or organizationally.

First of all, inflation is an output of an incredibly complex system, similar to in biology, the cell or the human body. You think megadoses of vitamin C will fix whatever ails you... last time it did but this time it will not. In some people it does work more often, and in others it does nothing. What gives? We have a super-complex system and variability in time and space. We don't know. Same with inflation. Is unemployment a factor in inflation? Perhaps, a weak one. Is money supply a factor in inflation? Unlike what Rickards says, perhaps, but a weak one. Inflation may be the output of dozens or even hundreds of weak factors, all competing to push inflation one waay or another. Is consumer psychology a factor? Probably a weak one, yes. Is it the only faactor? Despite what Rickards says, I can guarantee it is not.

Best, SD